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Pakistan – Challenge and Response (Tariq Osman Hyder)

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Pakistan’s 71st Independence anniversary is a time for looking back to see forward. The country is a prime example of the global historian Toynbee’s challenge and response theory. If the challenge facing a civilization, a country or a society is too great as in the artic, then the struggle to survive in the harsh climate leaves no room to develop. Conversely if there is hardly any challenge as in the South Seas where the weather is pleasant all year round and fruit and fish abundant the lack of challenge provides no spur to change. Progress comes out of the crucible of facing and overcoming challenges.

For Pakistan its very formation as a new country was a tremendous achievement. The Muslim community had to overcome the opposition of the ruling colonial power the British and the larger non-Muslim community, that too in a precipitate time frame not of its making, without the eight years interim period to prepare that it had accepted. But the Congress leaders rejected the Cripps plan because Pakistan would have eventually emerged larger in territory and because they wanted to ensure that as many Muslims as possible were forced to leave.

Once independent it made do with skeleton civil services, seven million traumatized refugees, no industrial base, a small ill-equipped military, withheld bank reserves, and with part of Muslim majority Kashmir which was its rightful territory being invaded and partially occupied. On both sides hostile neighbours-India and Afghanistan pursued irredentist claims. India claimed and tried to occupy the whole of Kashmir. Afghanistan formally demanded from the British, before Partition, all of FATA and the NWFP up to the Attock. Many foreign observers and in neighboring countries assessed that the security and economic challenges were so great that the country would not survive. But it did and prospered.

That skepticism abroad labeling the country on the edge of chaos and a failing state is periodically revived as in the 1990s, with its fainter echoes even more recently. The reality is different. Yes challenges persist: internal, external, with new global challenges such as terrorism and climate change. The record of successive governments and their leadership, both political and military, has been mixed as indeed the case in other countries.

An industrial base was built up, infrastructure augmented, democratic consciousness deepened, workers on the backs of whose hard work and technical expertise the Pakistan and the Gulf states’ infrastructure was built and whose remittances bolster the home economy; and a growing middle class. Despite the country being dismembered in 1971 by Indian aggression, Pakistan rebounded, enhanced its regional and international relevance, and was increasingly looked up to in the Muslim world as the champion of its causes and its strongest military power.

The tragic events of 1971 imbued policy makers with a – it must never happen again-dedication. Though unfairly targeted from 1974 because of India’s breach of nuclear safeguards, Pakistan overcame all sanctions and restraints to become a nuclear power utilizing a technological path which had not been mastered by any nuclear power for its first test. A strategic capability not only pivotal to peace, security and stability in South Asia but whose peaceful civil nuclear power uses are contributing to electricity generation in this fossil fuel deficit country. Also to agricultural and biotech research, new crop varieties, salinity control, water management and providing no-cost or at-cost nuclear diagnosis and treatment annually to 800,000 cancer patients. Not only for Pakistanis but Afghans as well who benefit from free medical care in general in Pakistan. An achievement unmatched in any developed country.

The American sponsored Jihad to remove Soviet troops from Afghanistan depended upon Pakistan’s support but left a legacy of extremism, terrorism, narcotics, and arms which have continued pouring in from Afghanistan; apart from nine million refugees of whom 1.4 million remain after almost four decades, and at least an equal number of illegal economic migrants.

When Pakistan had just about recovered from the first Afghan ordeal, the tragic terrorist attack of 9/11 took place. With western occupation, the second blowback from Afghanistan began, worsened by the use of Afghan soil by India and the Afghan intelligence service not only to give bases to regroup and to launch attacks to terrorists who have fled Pakistan but also to sponsor and send terrorists, insurrectionists, arms, explosives, and narcotics into Pakistan with the resultant loss of so many civilian, police, civil armed forces and military lives, in which school children were specially targeted, one instance being the terrorist attack on the Army Public School in Peshawar and its tragic aftermath. It is facile for the foreign powers -who still survive in Afghanistan on the oxygen that Pakistan provides – and who have failed in Afghanistan despite 17 years occupation, to say that Pakistan should ‘do more’ to help resolve Afghanistan or develop a better counter-extremism narrative. All the extremists had to say was that ‘Islam in under threat, Muslim countries are occupied’. It is a credit to the discipline of the Pakistan military that despite the unpopularity of the government’s support for the occupying forces in Afghanistan the long and hard campaign against terrorists within Pakistan has been largely won not only by its leading from the front officers but equally by the less educated foot soldiers who have resisted such religious and emotional propaganda.

The current economic difficulties are due in large part to the economic cost and foregone foreign investment resulting from the continuing foreign occupation of and turmoil in Afghanistan and the resulting terrorist attacks emanating from across both the eastern and western borders. What is more, natural disasters too have not spared Pakistan. The October 2005 Earthquake disaster killed 67,000 people within a few hours, the floods of 2010 and 2011 inundated large and heavily populated parts of the country, but the nation rebounded. However the resilience of Pakistanis stands out.

What though of the future? It is a time of hope, with significant political change. Imran Khan, leader of the PTI, the next Prime Minister carries none of the traditional baggage of Pakistani politicians, civil and military these past sixty years. He has no dynasty, businesses, or riches to protect. No unconstitutional personal power to safeguard to curry favour at the nation’s expense with any superpower. He has a majority mandate and unlike his predecessors is capable of being decisive.

The solutions to the country’s problems are self-evident. While population growth needs to be further reduced; there is a youth dividend, which is increasingly politically active. Pakistan needs to cash in on its youth dividend by making education including vocational training a top priority. This is the third sequential democratic change of government which demonstrates the deepening of the democratic process. With progressive fencing of the 2560 km border with Afghanistan, late though it may be, border management and counter terrorism capacity will further improve. The Pak-China Economic Corridor, the latest manifestation of the strategic partnership with China, through its multidimensional projects should contribute to transforming Pakistan, one reason for the opposition it has attracted in the region and abroad.

Pakistan’s resilience has proved to be its strength. On this independence anniversary it is clear that the county has a bright future. Though Pakistan’s development may have been uneven, the momentum of its 214 million inhabitants, whose indomitable spirit has overcome so many challenges, shall always carry it forward.

The writer is a retired Pakistani diplomat.

Originally published in Daily Nation Lahore  

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Articles International Relations Pakistan Affairs Pakistani Newspapers

Challenges and Opportunities for Pakistan’s foreign policy (By: Iram Naseer Ahmad)

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One of my preferred objects about International Relations (IR) is its vibrant landscape. The World around us modifies persistently which holds policies in a state of fluctuation. Therefore, the most vital responsibility of a policymaker in Pakistan’s foreign office should be to perceive, feel, comprehend and counter to the vicissitudes that are taking place across the World. The alteration itself ensues to be the most imperative part of the dilemma. Because transformation adjusts previous philosophies, it makes new supermen and villains; it retains fresh and adversative dynamisms in action and finally modification may transform intimidations into prospects and new chances into dangers. As IR have been advancing since the Treaty of Westphalia (1648), the behaviour, approaches and possibility of foreign policy have also been shifting. In the age of globalisation, more and more areas of global and regional connections today decrease within the realm of foreign policy. Expressions like cultural diplomacy, defence diplomacy, digital diplomacy and economic diplomacy are currently measured as part and parcel of foreign policy.

Furthermore, in the existing period countries belief on numerous approaches such as hard power, soft power and smart power to attain foreign policy aims. Eventually, the drive and job of a state’s foreign policy is to proficiently employ its collective asset to achieve desired ends and avert succeeding pressures and to adjust in the inter-connected world, As the British independent policy advisor Simon Anholt stated, “the central fact of the age we live in is that every country, every market, every medium of communication, every natural resource is connected”.

So, in what way is our world varying or has transformed over the past epoch? The world has improved beyond our imagination. The origin of this variation lies in technology, its stomach in policies with the mind in economics. Historically, from the wreckages of the Cold War and the socialism of Mao Tse Tung, has surfaced a China, whose economic growth has occupied the world by surprise and a model for developing states. A China directed by the thoughts of Deng Xiaoping has outstripped Japan and Germany economically, stands at number two today, and is expected to exceed the United States in the forthcoming decade or so. Against this backdrop, in any argument on foreign policy, it needs to be considered that all states — as realism proposes — are rational not emotional players. Two more points need to be distinguished. Firstly, foreign policy is the replication of a country’s internal setting and secondly, states foreign policy vestiges neither immobile nor inelastic. As the eminent American realist policymaker Robert D Kaplan proclaims, “countries neither having perpetual associates nor everlasting foes” goes by, the triumph of foreign policy, therefore, varies on sagacity and in its close conformity with the grand stratagem, security policy and domestic policy of a country. Consequently, foreign policy, exclusively piloted by a country’s national interest, is recycled as an instrument by a given nation for dealing with the outside world in innumerable parts such as security, economy, culture and technology.

In this framework, the search for international harmony continued a foundation of Pakistan’s foreign policy as marked from the concept of Quaid and in the Article 40 of the Constitution of Pakistan, whose objectives are very coherent. Like, firstly, the state shall attempt to sanctuary and reinforce amicable relationships among Muslim republics grounded on Islamic concord. Secondly, to provision the mutual benefits of the peoples of Asia, Africa and Latin America, thirdly, to promote international peace and security, fourthly, promote friendliness relations among all countries, lastly, to inspire the settlement of international disputes by peaceful means and non-aggression. In this context, Pakistan has always been an important associate of the global community when it appears to the advancement and reinforcement of global amity. Pakistan has performed an important role as a forefront state in ending the hazard of terrorism and extremism which has materialised as the most disparaging risk to international peace in the current era. But the disastrous terrorist episode of 9/11 was a serious brink in the foreign policy of Pakistan. In fact, “9/11 came as a shockwave”. As former President Pervez Musharraf himself revealed, the event brought with it unparalleled challenges for Pakistan, which insisted to “absorb external pressure.”

But on the flip side, there is good news to share, that the world around Pakistan has changed much, in fact, is still fluctuating. With more players in the game, although the environment around us is much more complex on the one side, but competitive on the other side. I do believe in modern period the foreign policy of Islamabad should be objective, Pakistani policy makers should opt a new approach to avoid the past challenges and absorb the new opportunities with fresh outlook. Now the World is demanding to contribute positively from Pakistan as a state rather than to behave like a permanent liability on Superpower’s shoulders. Consequently, it should be a gigantic job for foreign policy makers in Pakistan particularly after the recent elections held on 25 July 2018, where electorate and international community have a lot of hope from Pakistan that the slogan of “Change” should be the actual change to operate in such a challenging international milieu. No doubt, in the literature of IR, foreign policy of developing countries is the upshot of limitations and openings and it rejoins differently as linked to the great powers. By contrast, political, economic and military liabilities of feeble countries are anticipated to play a rationale role in the planning of foreign policy because they cannot afford the pressure of great power in any critical situations. In the changing settings, Pakistan should divorce its cost oriented realist foreign policy and should adopt the idealist policy with a view of avoiding confrontation with her neighbors, emerging states and the United States. Pakistan should try to make friends than enemies in this age of connectivity. Pakistan should realise that an inflexible posture will deliver a foundation for the whole structure of global compression which might affect to smash the country’s national concern. This precludes the option of mature relationship with the outside World in which Pakistan can safeguard its national values and national security respecting the core principles of our foreign policy mentioned in the article 40 of the constitution.

I conclude my words, recommending to current diplomats and foreign policy makers that they should approach to opt soft policy but without any compromise on state sovereignty, would not only significantly reduce the external pressure but also covered Pakistan’s desperate economic needs by circumventing the country to become a potential prey of international loneliness. As the pendulum of power is shifting from West to East, now is a golden opportunity for statesmen of Pakistan to get maximum advantage from new international structure but domestic settlement is the key to get foreign policy objectives in the 21st Century.

The writer is PhD in History from University of the Punjab and expertise on Pakistan-China Relations, Foreign Policy of Pakistan and International Relations.

Originally published in: Daily Nation 

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Islamic Articles Islamic Studies

The majestic Qur’an | Read for CSS Islamic Studies

By: Akbar Ahmed

As a schoolboy in the hills of Abbottabad, Iread Marmaduke Pickthall’stranslation of the Holy Quran, and its stirring introduction has stayed with me to this day. Pickthall wrote:“The Qur’an cannot be translated…The book is here rendered almost literally and every effort has been made to choose befitting language. But the result is not the Glorious Qur’an, that inimitable symphony, the very sounds of which move men to tears and ecstasy. It is only an attempt to present the meaning of the Qur’an—and peradventure something of the charm in English. It can never take the place of the Qur’an in Arabic, nor is it meant to do so.”

The Meaning of the Glorious Koran was published in 1930 after authorisation from Al-Azhar University and Pickthall, a convert to Islam, had become the first Muslim Englishman to translate the Quran. It remains popular among Muslims and non-Muslims alike.

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The 22nd Prime Minister | CSS Pakistan Affairs

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Month of August in the calendar year is already important because in this month we celebrate our independence every year on August 14.

But at least for the present, this month has gained more importance as within few days from now the country is going to have a new Prime Minister on the basis of mandate given by the people in the general election to the 15th  National Assembly  in the very fair, transparent, peaceful and orderly manner held on July 25, 2018.

The new Prime Minister in the Prime Minister’s House in Islamabad is going  to be none else but Chairman of Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) Imran Khan. As a matter of fact, both Imran Khan and his party PTI are new in the corridors of powers at the national level. PTI was the ruling party during last five years in the province of Khyber Pukhtunkhwa on the basis of mandate of the people it had secured in 2013 general election.

PTI and allies have adequate number of seats in the National Assembly to form the new government after Imran Khan is voted as the new Prime Minister in the new National Assembly inaugural session in couple of days. United Opposition parties including former ruling parties PML(N) and PPP and religious parties revived alliance Mutahidda Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) and other parties have put up PML(N) President and formerly Punjab Chief Minister Shehbaz Sharif as their joint candidate for the top slot of the Prime Minister mainly to ensure that the PTI Chairman is not elected as the new Prime Minister just unopposed.

PTI is the newest ruling party at the national level in about 71 years politically chequered history of Pakistan. Previous  ruling parties for varying periods were Pakistan’s founding party Muslim League, Awami League,Republican Party, Pakistan Peoples Party, Pakistan Muslim League , Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-i-Azam).

These ruling parties are besides the bitter fact that the country has been ruled for longer and shorter period by four military dictators in Field Marshal Muhammad Ayub Khan , General Agha Muhammad Yahya Khan, General Muhammad Ziaul Haq and General Pervez Musharraf. Till now, the country had seven caretaker Prime Ministers also in Ghulam Mustafa Jatoi, Mir Balakh Sher Mazari, Moeenuddin Ahmad Qureshi, Malik Meraj Khalid, Muhammedmian Soomro,  Mir Hazar Khan Khoso and Justice ® Nasirul Mulk for running day to day affairs and supervising holding of  general election or mid-term or full term basis.

It is pertinent to mention here, mainly for record purposes, that during the electoral campaigns to July 25, 2017 general election, PML(N) President Shehbaz Sharif, PPP Chairman Bilawal Zardari and PTI Chairman Imran Khasn had made it quite ominous that in case their parties emerge victorious in the polls, then either of them will be the new Prime Minister of the country. And, the people have voted in favour of PTI Chairman to occupy the office of the Prime Minister for next constitutional tenure of five years.

Historically and statistically speaking for keeping the records state, Pakistan is about to turn 71 in few days from now on August 14, 2018 with the continued blessings of Almighty Allah despite all the internal and external challenges and problems it had and still facing all these years. Being 71 is obviously quite small period in the life of the nation which had come out in existence out of nowhere on August 14, 1947 under the inspiring leadership and principled statesmanship of  Quaid-i-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah  and is destined to remain on the world map as long as blessed by Almighty Allah.

But most unfortunately and due to persisting political instability and fragile democracy every now and then, Imran Khan will be assuming the high office as the 22nd Prime Minister of the country despite the bitter that the post had remained abolished during the varying periods of four military dictators, as mentioned above,  and seven caretaker Prime Ministers.

The post of the Prime Minister was created  at the time of creation of Pakistan. Since the post of the Governor General had not been abolished in the beginning, the Prime Minister in office initially  did not have all the executive powers . Following the 18th Constitutional Amendment passed only in 2010, the Prime Minister is the executive head of the State of Pakistan and as such the incumbent in the office enjoys more powers than any other government officials including the President.

After the first political murder and unfortunately assassination of Pakistan’s first Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan  on October 16, 1951 while he was addressing a public meeting in Gol Bagh, Rawalpindi, there were as many as seven different  prime ministers  within the short span of six years. All of them were from Pakistan founding party Muslim League except  Malik Feroze Khan Noon who was the first one from the newly-formed Republican Party and also Huseyn Shaheed Surhawardy who hailed from Awami League.

It is also a bitter fact that none of the 21 Prime Ministers somehow had not completed their tenure  due to varying reasons and factors. PPP”s Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani  held the post  for four years two months and 25 days prior to his being unseated and convicted by the Supreme Court of Pakistan. Previously, Liaquat Ali Khan had served the longest period of four years two months and 2 days as the first Prime Minister.

PML(N) own faction chief Nawaz Sharif had become the Prime Minister three times but still ion aggregation his three tenures, all remaining incomplete somehow,  totalled up to 5 years, two months and 27 DAYS.  After aggregating  Benazir Bhutto’s two terms, her total period in power  comes to four years 8 months and 21 days. Both Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif somehow could not complete even a single five years constitutional tenure though they duly elected Prime Ministers twice and thrice respectively.However, both Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto  are the longest serving prime ministers though non-consecutively.

The governments of Prime Ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif  were dismissed twice and once respectively  by Presidents Ghulam Ishaq Khan and Sardar Farooq Ahmad Khan Leghari. However, Nawaz Sharif on being removed in April 1993 was reinstated in May and then he had resigned the office in July 1993 along with President Ghulam Ishaq Khan after both of them had reached point of no return and following an agreement brokered by the high quarters concerned to save the situation. Nawaz Sharif’s second term was curtailed in October 1999 when Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee/Chief of Army Staff General Pervez Musharraf seized power through a coup.. Nawaz Sharif’s third term  as an off shoot of the 18th Constitutional Amendment  was cut down in July 27, 2017 when he was disqualified by the Supreme Court of Pakistan in Panama Papers Leaks case.

 Then after the first coup d’etat of the newly born country staged by General Muhammad Khan in October 1958, the post of the prime minister had remained  abolished for a pretty  long period of 13 years and 2 months including short tenure of second military ruler General Agha Muhammad Yahya Khan till 1971.

There was a short period of recreation of the post when Nurul Amin was appointed as the Prime Minister merely for 13 days in December 1971. Alongside him, General Yahya Khan  had also illegally made PPP’s Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and Awami League’s Sh Mujibur Rahman as the Vice-Prime Ministers  though they had not acquired these positions.

Former ruling parties have been mentioned already briefly, regular Prime Ministers names  in short are Liaqat Ali Khan, Khwaja Nazimuddin, Muhammad Ali Bogra, Ch Muhammad Ali, Huseyn Shaheed Suhrawardy, Ibrahim Ismail Chundrigar, Malik Feroze Khan Noon, Nurul Amin, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto,Muhammad Ali Junejo, Benazir Bhutto,  Nawaz Sharif, Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, Shaukat Aziz, Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani, Rana Pervaiz Ashraf and Shahid Khaqan Abbasi.

Ironically, Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-i-Azam), Pakistan Peoples Party and Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz )  had completed  their constitutionally tenure  of five years each between 2002 to 2018 one after the other. However, due to varying reasons, PML (QA) had three, PPP two and PML(N) also two Prime Ministers during their respective constitutional tenures.

Total duration of democratically elected Prime Minister  aggregates to 34 years 11 months and 14 days, the four military dictators ruled the country as Chief Martial Law Administrator/President almost for the same period.

Lot more in this regard after country’s 22nd Prime Minister is inducted in the office  and the Nation celebrates another Independence Day within next few days, please.


The writer is Lahore-based Freelance Journalist, Columnist and retired Deputy              Controller (News) Radio Pakistan, Islamabad.

zahidriffat@gmail.com

Originally published in Daily The Nation (August 11, 2018)

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Current Affairs Pakistani Newspapers

IS IMF AVOIDABLE? (By Shahid Kardar)

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IT is now generally recognised that we face the herculean task of settling our external obligations. However, what is less widely understood is that the structural factors underlying the massive current account deficit of and the rapidly growing debt repayments have made the present crisis deeper and more protracted in nature (especially with the rising price of oil). In the short-term the external financing gap presents a formidable challenge with the more immediate requirement likely to be $28 billion for the current year.
And the fiscally irresponsible budget for 2018-19 tabled by the outgoing government is expected to worsen both the external and domestic imbalances, thereby queering the pitch for the next government, making its task even more daunting, both economically and politically (the latter may just make the withdrawal of the income tax concessions almost impossible).
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Articles Current Affairs Pakistani Newspapers

China’s growing influence in South Asia (By: Rida Khan)

Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world,” Napoleon’s words seem spookily veracious today, as the shock waves from China’s awakening echo around the globe.

Ever since the Asian Dragon has risen it has been expanding its wings in dabbling Asian countries by helping them built their finances in projects granted by their government.

Just over half a century ago, China was reeling from one of the most significant economic catastrophes in state history. Today, China has exploded with GDP growth at 6.8% per year making the state the second largest economy of the world. It had lifted more than 600 million people out of poverty and has emerged as the largest trading partner of US, EU, India and Japan. Measured strictly by GDP, China will likely surpass the US within the next few years (Giles).

The most remarkable economic transformation in human history has led to a significant ‘rise of China’ phenomenon, which caused a profound “shift in global dynamics and evolving geopolitics” in a more “south-orientated world” (UN).

China has also broadened its diplomatic activities ever since, playing a key role in international institutions and wielding greater geopolitical influence in Asia and around the world. In the process it has become the second most influential country in the world after the US. For instance, its role in stimulating the world economy and even resolving nuclear issues in the Korean Peninsula and the Persian Gulf has been crucial.

In this new order, China is becoming a more responsible player on the global stage and addressing international issues such as global terrorism, environmental degradation, energy security, international crime and so on.

In political realism, power is the capability to make another state do something it would not otherwise do and vice versa. What makes a state powerful is about its capability of influencing another. In the world of states, this capability is based on both tangible and intangible characteristics of the state. Tangible characteristics include things as state’s size, economy, military, technological development and population. Talking specifically of Asia, China is indeed the ASIAN DRAGON.   Ambitiousness, hardworking, national will, the intangible characteristics, also drove China to success.

As power is inflationary, so when countries become stronger, their interest expands beyond their borders, where they must find new ways to protect those interests. China is no exception. Thus, in order to sustain its peaceful rise, it is increasing its influence around the world and South Asia is no different.

The South Asian region, home to one fourth of the world’s population, is one of the least economically integrated regions in the world. Intraregional trade remains well below its potential due to, “historical political tensions and mistrust, with cross-border conflicts and security concerns” (World Bank). Most South Asian countries rely heavily on developed nations as export destinations, and increasingly import from China.

Since 21st century, China has been conducting multi-dimensional cooperation with all of the South Asian countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka). Chinas linkage with South Asian countries expanded to all fields including economic, communication, cultural exchange, energy and the untraditional security cooperation.

China’s major interests in South Asia include promoting stability in both Afghanistan and Pakistan in order to curb the influence of Islamist extremists, and to facilitate trade and energy corridors throughout the region that China can access, that is to increase its presence in the Indian Ocean Region. The Ocean accounts for half the world’s seaborne container traffic, and 70 percent of the total traffic of the world’s petroleum. China considers the Ocean to be a key strategic waterway because a significant portion of its goods and oil transit through the Ocean. China’s South Asian Strategy also focuses on enhancing its influence with other South Asian states as part of a global effort to extend its diplomatic and economic influence.

As China is energy thirsty economic power, it is highly sensitive to the fact that these resources, which are essential to China’s economic productivity could be interdicted by hostile state or non-state actors. So, China seeks greater presence and influence in the Indian Ocean region, primarily to protect the sea lines of communication upon which its economy depends, as well as to expand its influence.

It is in this context that cases such as CPEC can be viewed. The China-Pakistan nexus is by far the most important and dynamic relationship in South Asia , accentuating China’s desire to maintain a foothold in the Indian Ocean.  In 2015, China and Pakistan launched the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)—which falls under the OBOR umbrella—with the signing of 49 agreements to finance a variety of projects with a total expected value of $46 billion, including upgrades to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, oil and gas pipelines, road and railway infrastructure, and a series of energy projects. CPEC aims to link western China by road and rail down to the Gwadar deep water port, located at the edge of the Strait of Hormuz in the Arabian Sea, via 2,000 miles of rail, road, and pipelines.

China’s one of the major interests in South Asia is to promote peace and stability in Afghanistan, which stems in part from its desire to access the country as a gateway to Central Asia and Europe. It is also primarily driven by its desire to prevent conflict from spilling over into western China in the Xinjiang autonomous region as given the presumed link between the Taliban leadership in Afghanistan and the East Turkestan Independence Movement, a Uighur separatist movement in China’s Xinjian province that borders Afghanistan. China hopes that, eventually, long-term stability in Afghanistan will allow it to build railways, roads, electricity, and water projects in the country as part of its Silk Road Economic Belt.

Projects like CPEC, Belt and Road Initiative are the part of the “Chinese dream” that will fulfill China’s plan to become next superpower. Through project like these China is in a way securing a new alternative trade for goods especially oil and gas from Middle East.

China’s one belt and road initiative is the most ambitious infrastructure project in modern history that’s designed to reroute the global trade. This potentially ambitious project covering about  60%  of the world’s population, about one-third of the world’s GDP, and about a quarter of all the goods and services the world moves, creating a network of railways, roads, pipelines, and utility grids that would link China and Central Asia, West Asia, and parts of South Asia . “One Belt, One Road” strategy, is expected to relieve China of the “Malacca dilemma”, what then President Hu Jintao in 2003 called China’s overreliance on the Malacca Strait for trade.

While the concerns in Afghanistan persist, China has already become a major investor in Afghanistan, through projects like the Mes Aynak copper mine—a $3.5 billion project in Logar province, the largest direct foreign investment in Afghanistan’s history—particularly due to its considerable supply of rare earth minerals and its potential as a pathway for Chinese trade into Central Asia.

In the past decade, China has emerged as a top exporter of goods to the region breaking into South Asian markets with its export-led growth strategy. Bangladesh provides the starkest example of this trend. China has become Bangladesh’s top trading partner in 2015, imports from China (including Hong Kong) were 27 percent of Bangladesh’s total imports. China offers cheaper Chinese products (especially cotton and other fabrics central to Bangladesh’s garment industry) without the visa, transport, and customs challenges. Besides, Bangladesh and China hold regular military exchanges, Beijing has provided Dhaka with five maritime patrol vessels, two small warships, 44 tanks, and 16 fighter jets, as well as surface-to-air and anti-ship missiles. Bangladesh has even allocated two special economic zones for Chinese investors in Chittagong, a major port, and Dhaka, the capital. In return China played a large role in developing and modernizing Bangladesh’s port at Chittagong.

The Chinese dragon has advanced swiftly in Sri Lanka, which is located on a key trade route in the Indian Ocean. China’s exports to Sri Lanka are rising fast. Other than Pakistan, Sri Lanka has been the leading beneficiary of Chinese infrastructure investment in South Asia , with nearly $15 billion worth of projects between 2009 and 2014. More than the bilateral trade, it is the growing Chinese investment in infrastructure that has enhanced China’s influence in Sri Lanka. Some of the Chinese investments in Sri Lanka are the construction of Puttalam Coal Power Plant, Supreme Court Complex, Gingang Flood Protection Scheme, a US$1 .4 billion plan to build an artificial island off Colombo, designed with malls, hotels and marinas, a project that seeks to rival Singapore and Dubai. On other hand to facilitate Chinese investment, the Sri Lankan Board of Investment has taken various steps like demarcating a separate zone for Chinese investors at Mirigama (China is the first country to have an Exclusive Economic Zone – EEZ – in Sri Lanka), establishing an investment promotion office in Shanghai, and earmarking a special five year visa for investors. Sri Lanka had even allowed Chinese submarines to dock at Colombo port twice in late 2014.

Nepal showcases another facet of China’s growing influence in South Asia . Unlike Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, which give China access to strategically located ports, Nepal is a small, landlocked country. Its location squeezed between Tibet and India makes it an important buffer zone for China. China’s main interest in Nepal also stems from its concern over the large Tibetan refugee community there.  Beijing has pressed Kathmandu to tighten its borders with Tibet, which has led to a major decrease in the number of Tibetans able to flee to Nepal in recent years. China is also bolstering trade with Nepal, pursuing road building and hydropower projects and had provided its swift assistance following the devastating earthquake in April 2015. Nepal had also signed several agreements with China, including a permanent arrangement for energy supplies and a transit treaty granting Nepal access to Chinese ports.

China has its influence even in India. India–China economic relations have expanded in recent years. China has captured Indian market not only in the subcontinent but also in India. It is India’s biggest trading partner, with bilateral trade totaling around $71 billion in 2014. Despite the border tensions and maritime competition, India is interested in expanding economic and commercial ties between countries. The two countries had signed 24 agreements and nearly $30 billion worth of business deals. Though India’s trade relationship with China has leapfrogged in the last decade, the corresponding political relationship has been higgledy-piggledy. A section within India (belonging to the strategic community) believes in the outdated “string of pearls” strategy by China and views Beijing as a threat, advocating a confrontational strategy.

India fears that Chinese investment in South Asian ports not only serves Chinese commercial interests, but also facilitates Chinese military goals. India perceives the Chinese presence in South Asian countries as a design to circumvent what was once considered as India’s sphere of influence.

The reason why china is so far successful in influencing south Asia is because of many factors. The one of major reasons are that it has managed to project itself as a disinterested neighbour. China has never interfered with other countries’ internal affairs. Besides unlike the rest of the international community where countries have to meet strict ethical order, China offers billions of dollars mostly in loans with far fewer conditions. BRI has been hit with less democratic countries in the region.

However the challenge for China is to ensure that its ameliorating position benefits all nations. It is high time that the nations of South Asia move beyond mistrust and old paradigms and engage with each other in meaningful and mutually-beneficial ways. This remains the region’s greatest challenge.

Published in: Daily Nation Lahore


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Is Iran`s Rouhani a lame duck president? | CSS International Relations

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Having staked everything on a now-crumbling nuclear deal, Iran`s President Hassan Rouhani has little to show for his five years in power and is seeing his support evaporate.

The fifth anniversary of Rouhani`s first inauguration fell on Friday, but with the economy in crisis and US sanctions set to return just four days later, there were no celebrations.

Rouhani was supposed to be the centrist who could heal Iran`s divisions and build a China-like development model in which economic growth would head off demands for major political reform.

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Pakistan’s new PM & the Prophet’s delinking policy (Times of India Report)

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Imran Khan’s party has emerged victorious in the recently concluded parliamentary elections in Pakistan. I listened to his victory speech and pray for the fulfilment of his good intentions to build a positive future for Pakistan and fulfil the vision of its founder for their country’s development.

In his speech, the new prime minister-elect observed that his inspiration derives from the first state of Medina established by the Prophet of Islam. Taking Medina as a reference point marks a right beginning. As a nonagenarian witnessing this development, i would like to offer some words of advice. I have extensively studied the life of Prophet Muhammad. I discovered that one of the most crucial lessons from the Prophet’s life is that the key to ensuring success of any endeavour is to make the right beginning. Prophet Muhammad started his mission in Mecca in the seventh century. At that time, he had opportunities as well as problems and he opted for what can be termed as the delinking policy. This right beginning was the secret of his success.

As a part of this policy, he placed controversial matters on the negotiation table and at the same, strove to avail of all the opportunities that presented themselves in the field of non-controversial issues. This delinking policy of the Prophet was based on superior wisdom. Due to this, he found a great opportunity to make progress in the newly established state of Medina.  However, after the establishment of Pakistan, instead of following such a delinking policy, its leaders attached prime importance to the acquisition of lands which they thought had been lost for various reasons.

History testifies to the fact that the delinking policy of the Prophet proved to be highly successful, both in principle and in practice. Its greatest benefit is that it affords the opportunity to undertake re-planning and focus on nation building. After the Second World War, many countries adopted this policy and experienced great success with it. Germany and Japan made tremendous progress in the field of education and scientific development.

The need of the hour is for Pakistan to adopt this delinking policy. As pointed out by Khan, today, trade is the most promising field to ensure the progress of a country. Due to prevailing universal norms, the field of trade is fully open between India and Pakistan and it is an opportunity which must be availed of. The two countries must set all controversial issues aside and work towards building strong trade relations. Such a delinking policy will certainly ensure progress for both nations.

India and Pakistan have, in equal measure, inherited the subcontinent’s historical traditions. In fact, the similarities between the two nations are so numerous that it would be no exaggeration to say that there is already a pre-existing basis for a delinking policy between the two. Now, it should be availed of in an organised manner.

India and Pakistan, can work together, towards the development of their respective nations. Many avenues are open to forge a healthy alliance between the two nations in the field of education, health services, technology and the media, for instance.

Being immediate neighbours, India and Pakistan cannot afford to remain antagonists; rather, they should strive to forge cordial relations in all possible spheres in order to lead the two nations onward, along a parallel path of development!

Source: Daily The Nation Lahore

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Imran Khan’s difficult road ahead as Pakistan PM (Report by: AFP)

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Pakistan’s World Cup cricket hero Imran Khan is set to become prime minister of the nuclear-armed nation of 207 million, with an economy inching toward crisis and perennial conflict on its borders.

Running the country will take considerable statecraft from Khan’s relatively inexperienced party. He brings charisma, international name recognition and a sizeable election victory, though not enough to form a majority government.

But critics say his star is diminished by sympathy towards extremists, and the unsportsmanlike nature of his win, which is widely alleged to have been fixed for him by Pakistan’s generals. His first challenge is cobbling together a coalition.

Here is a rundown of the issues Khan and his PakistanTehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party will face once at the political crease.

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Tax amnesty and economy of Pakistan (M Nadeem Bhatti)

Tax amnesty scheme is a limited-time opportunity for a specified group of taxpayers to pay a defined amount, in exchange for forgiveness of a tax liability (including interest and penalties) relating to a previous tax period or periods and without fear of criminal prosecution.

It typically expires when some authority begins a tax investigation of the past-due tax. In some cases, legislation extending amnesty also imposes harsher penalties on those who are eligible for amnesty but do not take it. Tax amnesty is one of voluntary compliance strategies to increase tax base and tax revenue. Tax amnesty is different from other voluntary compliance strategies in part where tax amnesty usually waives the taxpayers tax liability.

Amnesty scheme in any fiscal year is to help State treasury raising tax revenues, adding beneficiaries in tax base who have not declared their assets previously. The main purpose of inception of this scheme is to replicate the economy and encouraging individuals to declare their wealth as it may arises. Under this scheme the beneficiary just has to pay some tax on the total assets which are declared in Amnesty scheme. State introduces this scheme when they believe that individuals are hiding their wealth from the tax authorities. Federal Government of Pakistan recently announced a tax reform package and amnesty which is expected to overhaul and change the entire taxation system in Pakistan.

The tax package revolves around five major points:

First is that CNIC numbers to be made NTN numbers to monitor tax compliance of all citizens.