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Will CPEC survive the IMF bailout? (By: Afshan Subohi)

By: Afshan Subohi

The staff report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week must have provided some measure of comfort to the champions of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as well as China that chose Pakistan to be the first key destination for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to sustain its economic triumph and realise future ambitions.

If this is just a coincidence, it is intriguing. After a long lull, there is light blipping again on the CPEC drawing board. Last Friday, a 55-member Chinese delegation of business executives met Prime Minister Imran Khan and reportedly committed to ploughing $5 billion investment over the next five years. “Probably the interaction with the Chinese delegations was already planned, but the fact that it did materialise as soon as details of the IMF deal were made public kindled new hope for the future,” commented a top leader of the government’s economic team.

In its staff report following the approval of a three-year $6bn bailout programme, the IMF mentions the repayment of $14.68bn due for $21.8bn bilateral and commercial loans that Pakistan owes to China. This is almost 24pc of the country’s total $85.8bn external debt and liabilities. The document states that the Chinese commercial debt will be fully retired by the end of the programme in 2022 while the bilateral debt ($15.5bn) will be almost half of what the country owes at this point to $7.9bn.

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EBooks

CPEC & Pakistani Economy: An Appraisal (Download Book in PDF)

CPEC & Pakistani Economy: An Appraisal (By: Dr Ishrat Hussain)

Introduction

One of the common reservations expressed about CPEC is that it lacks transparency and non‐availability of complete information. The terms and conditions of financing at which the Chinese companies are participating in these projects are not fully known and the likely future financing burden on Pakistan’s balance of payments is not obvious. This booklet attempts to address some of these issues to the extent that the projects have been planned, agreed upon, finalized and implementation is under way. Only approximately half of $ 45 billion committed originally for CPEC would be utilized for these projects. Pakistan’s liability is therefore at present limited to this $ 23‐25 billion only. Many other projects are at feasibility stage, discussion or negotiation stage between the two governments or on hold. No amount has either been committed or disbursed for these projects and the liability of Pakistan has not yet arisen. It must be kept in mind that the planning of CPEC follows four stages and frim information would flow only when we reach that stage. These stages are: